The Future of Urbanization in Africa.

April 27^th, 2021 | Written By Fola Runsewe

Photo credits: Kya Sands / Bloubosrand 2 by Johhny Miller

Urbanization is one of the large-scale changes that will shape the future of the world’s physical environment. It has long term implications on the sustainable development of Housing & infrastructure, social welfare, and climate change. It will influence the decisions made by governments and municipal authorities in forming new strategies to manage their environments.

Some of the highest rates of urbanization in the world occur in the continent of Africa and the trend is expected to increase over the coming decade due to the rate of migration by the young population from rural to urban areas in search of a better quality of life and economic opportunity. A challenge of this growing pattern will be the capacity of governments and authorities to sustain urban development at a faster pace than the rate of urban migration and particularly in the phase of limited resources.

Therefore, the management of urban areas will be one of the critical factors that will determine the future sustainability of the human and natural resources on the continent and how far they can continue to support the growing populations of the countries.

Gauging the significance of this modern trend on the environment and its future consequences will highlight the scale of its influence on our entire society and we can explore the emerging strategies that have been developed to sustainably manage the impacts.

The Growing Pattern and future challenges

An Urban Area, “They are centers of industrialization for a nation’s output of goods and services, and for innovations in science, art & culture. They provide the best opportunities for people to lead full and satisfying lives” (Makinde.2012)

Urbanization is the expansion of towns and cities due to the increased population from the migration of people in the rural areas to the urban areas. Urban areas are described as the surrounding parts of a city which are characterized by higher population density and more developed buildings and public infrastructure. The minimum threshold of an urban area is 0.5 million inhabitants, and the modern-day evolution is referred to as a megacity which comprises of inhabitants that exceed 10 million people. Megacities are complex urban areas with contrasting dynamics that can establish them as a regional economic center with interconnecting influence in one hand, but also with implicit administrative and political boundaries from the uncontrolled expansions.

The cities of Lagos and Cairo are two megacities on the continent of Africa with the highest population growth forecast of over 24 million people each by the year 2030 (UN, 2014). The urban population in Africa was projected at 45.3% in 2015, and the estimates have risen over the past decade (Makinde.2012). These major cities account for a quarter of their nation’s Gross Domestic Product GDP and they consume the highest amounts of energy. Despite their smaller land mass, they have attracted more migrants seeking better economic opportunities.

Culled from (ESPAS, 2019)

Urbanization that is driven more by migration rather than physical development - as is the case in many African cities, has often led to urban sprawl, low productivity, segregation, exclusion, and congestion. The increase in urban density in a phase of limited resources has resulted in the creation of distressed communities that are populated by poor and vulnerable people who lack access to some basic social services like affordable housing, good education, quality healthcare, and even healthy nutrition.

To achieve a sustainable future, urban development must deliver on all these social necessities across different segments of communities and to integrate economic productivity with environmental concerns. After decades of urbanization in these cities, there are now present environmental threats caused by the impacts of overwhelming human activities that have manifested in natural and physical disruptions such as less sources of clean water, poorer air quality, warmer temperatures, seasonal flooding’s, deforestation, and land use changes.

A major consequence of modern-day urbanization has been its net contribution to climate change through the release of more carbon emissions and other sources of pollution from domestic, industrial, and economic activities which have different pathways in the air, land, and water. It has caused more depletion of the natural resources, especially to land and the loss of biodiversity. Most economies in Africa are supported by their natural energy resources and therefore Green House Gas (GHG) emissions like carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) have accelerated the impact of global warming with an increased land temperature across the continent rising higher than the global average (Asongu et al, 2020).

As this megatrend evolves, new urban forms, patterns, and behaviors have emerged and only more compact, interconnected, and low carbon emitting cities can achieve a socially and economically sustainable environment to withstand the increasing pressures of rapid population growth.

Mitigating strategies

1. Information Technology: Public services like Transportation, Energy distribution, Healthcare, Water supply and Waste Management have been successfully adopted into modern societies through evolving information technology to form a concept called a ʺsmart city ˮ. Computers are used to capture and process information on the use of public services over a large area in a more efficient and economical way, to enable a clearer analysis and understanding of the changing patterns of public service demand in any given environment and for faster official response. A future smart city must develop infrastructure to help authorities monitor and respond to vital environmental changes. (Fujistsu, 2015)
2. Environmental Management: The economic and social factors have long been used as development variables, but the environment is now being re-enforced as a critical factor that needs to be integrated into future sustainable development. The U.N 2030 agenda has linked future sustainable development goals with the environmental performance of nations and cities around the world. Therefore, future cities will be required to develop the quality of their environments through better management standards and practices that mitigate the impact of climate change such as carbon emissions, municipal solid waste, and general pollution. Some of the management and assessment tools that can be adopted into the decision-making processes include carbon footprint, Ecological footprint, and environmental management systems (EMS).
3. Social Sustainability: The most sustainable cities in the future will be those that are able to ensure the safety, inclusion, and resilience of their communities by providing the necessities for life and human well-being such as good jobs, affordable housing, modern public infrastructure, good healthcare etc. Therefore, Institutions should be developed to guard and protect social justice for all its citizens and must be equipped to develop human capital.
4. Urban Planning: The New urban agenda of the U.N Habitat conference in 2016 identified planning, finance, development, government, and management as critical factors of future human settlements and their effects will determine the sustainable development of any city. To achieve this goal, some of the new urban frame works stipulated in the charter are:
   • Building Interconnected and compact urban structures, including an allowance for mixed use spaces.
   • Designing public spaces that are suitable for multipurpose use and inclusion the members of communities.
   • The connection of public spaces like roads and streets with adequate provision for sidewalks, bicycles, and less emphasis on car travel.
   • Eco friendly designs.
   • Considerations for the best use of commercial areas as street level floors which can encourage formal and informal interconnections between people.
   • An emphasis on urban renewal and regeneration.
   • The use of contemporary designs for incremental housing development and any self-build schemes.

The future is here!

Major African cities are experiencing an urban explosion with an overwhelming burden from increased population densities amid limited resources and infrastructure. The accelerating pace of modern urbanization has formed megacities with different complex dynamics of challenges and opportunities. Many of the changing dynamics have been overlooked in the past and the consequences are manifested in the plethora of social and environmental issues they are confronted with today. The future sustainable development of the megacities and its citizens will require a new agenda to build new capacities - human and material and to integrate environmental performance into urban administration.

References:

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (2019) Global Trends to 2030: The future of urbanization and megacities.

Fujitsu (2015) Megatrends urban migration.

Olusola Oladapo Makinde (2012) ‘Urbanization, housing and environment: Megacities of Africa.

Asongu, SA, Agboola, MO, Alola, AA & Bekun, FV (2020) ‘The criticality of growth, urbanization, electricity and fossil fuel consumption to environment sustainability in Africa

Mehaffy, MW & Haas,T (2020) New Urbanism in the New Urban Agenda: Threads of an unfinished Reformation.